Macroeconomy and macropartisanship: Economic conditions and party identification

Abstract

“It's the economy stupid”—is the phrase that captures the ubiquity of economics in determining election outcomes. Nevertheless, while several studies support the premise of economic voting, a constant critique of valence economic models is that partisan bias contaminates voters' economic perceptions, thus invaliding any independent effect of economic opinions on the vote. Here, we test whether partisanship may itself be endogenous to the macroeconomy. Aggregating data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), supplemented with European Social Survey (ESS) data to bolster the time analysis, we focus on macropartisanship and find a drop-off of party identifiers for governing parties in tandem with the economic downturn, specifically from rising unemployment. More generally, macropartisanship responds to economic conditions, suggesting that the endogeneity concern between party attachment and valence economic conditions is not unidirectional. That is, while economic perceptions may be influenced by party identification, party identification can be influenced by economic conditions. Related Articles: Dettrey, Bryan J. 2013. “Relative Losses and Economic Voting: Sociotropic Considerations or ‘Keeping up with the Joneses?’” Politics & Policy 41(5): 788–806. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12038. Fernandes, Ivan Filipe, Gustavo Andrey De Almeida Lopes Fernandes, and Artur Zimerman. 2022. “For Whom the Bell Tolls: Party Mediation Effects on Economic Voting in a Large Democratic Federation.” Politics & Policy 50(2): 324–62. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12453. Stegmaier, Mary, and Michael S. Lewis-Beck. 2009. “Learning the Economic Vote: Hungarian Forecasts, 1998–2010.” Politics & Policy 37(4): 769–80. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2009.00197.x.