Outcome of Patients with Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Pursuing Non-Surgical Strategy in National Cancer Database

Abstract

Background: Survival data on patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) undergoing non-operative management (NOM) in a real-world setting are lacking. Methods: We analyzed LARC patients from the National Cancer Database with the following features: treated between 2010 and 2020, age 18–65 years, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) ≤ 1, received neoadjuvant multiagent chemotherapy plus radiation ≥ 45 Gray, and underwent surgery or NOM. Patients were stratified into two groups: (A) clinical T1-3 tumors with positive nodes (cT1-3N+) and (B) clinical T4 tumors, N+/− (cT4N+/−). We performed a comparative analysis of overall survival (OS) with NOM versus surgery by the Kaplan–Meier method and propensity score matching. Additionally, a multivariable analysis explored the association between NOM and OS. Results: NOM exhibited significantly lower OS than surgery in both groups. In cT1-3N+ patients, NOM resulted in a 5-year OS of 73.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 69.7–77.6%) versus 84.5% (95% CI = 83.6–85.3%) with surgery (p < 0.001). In the cT4N+/− group, NOM yielded a 5-year OS of 44.5% (95% CI = 37.0–51.8%) versus 72.5% (95% CI = 69.9–74.8%) with surgery (p < 0.001). Propensity score matching and multivariable analyses revealed similar conclusions. Conclusion: Patients with LARC undergoing NOM versus surgery in real-world settings appear to have inferior survival.