Magnitude of the 1920 Haiyuan Earthquake Reestimated Using Seismological and Geomorphological Methods

Abstract

Reported magnitudes ranging between 7.8 and 8.7 highlight a confusion about the true size of the 1920 Haiyuan earthquake, the largest earthquake recorded in the northeast Tibetan Plateau. We compiled a global data set of previously unlooked-at historical seismograms and performed modern computational analyses on the digitized seismic records. We found the epicenter to be near Haiyuan town and obtained a moment magnitude of MW=7.9±0.2. Following traditional approaches, we obtained mB=7.9±0.3 with data from 21 stations and MS(20)=8.1±0.2 with data from three stations. Geomorphologically, we mapped the surface rupture and horizontal offsets on high-resolution Pleiades satellite and drone imagery that covered the entire western and middle sections of the 1920 Haiyuan earthquake rupture and compiled offsets reported on the eastern section from field measurements in the 1980s. Careful discrimination between single-event and cumulative offsets suggests average horizontal slips of 3.0±1.0 m on the western section, 4.5±1.5 m on the middle section, and 3.5±0.5 m on the eastern section, indicating a total moment magnitude of MW=7.8±0.1. Thus, the seismological and geomorphological results agree within the uncertainties, a weighted average giving a moment magnitude of MW=7.9±0.2 for the 1920 Haiyuan earthquake. It is likely that earthquake magnitudes based on the historical M were systematically overestimated.