In what direction should the fishing mortality target change when natural mortality increases within an assessment?

Abstract

Traditionally, the natural mortality rate (M) in a stock assessment is assumed to be constant. When M increases within an assessment, the question arises how to change the fishing mortality rate target (FTarget). Per recruit considerations lead to an increase in FTarget, while limiting total mortality leads to a decrease in FTarget. Application of either approach can result in nonsensical results. Short-term gains in yield associated with high FTarget values should be considered in light of potential losses in future yield if the high total mortality rate leads to a decrease in recruitment. Examples using yellowtail flounder (Limanda ferruginea) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) are used to demonstrate that FTarget can change when M increases within an assessment and to illustrate the consequences of different FTarget values. When a change in M within an assessment is contemplated, first consider the amount and strength of empirical evidence to support the change. When the empirical evidence is not strong, we recommend using a constant M. If strong empirical evidence exists, we recommend estimating FTarget for a range of stock-recruitment relationships and evaluating the trade-offs between risk of overfishing and forgone yield.