Prediction of premyopia and myopia in Chinese preschool children: a longitudinal cohort

Abstract

Backgrounds: Myopia has become a global public health problem. Children with early onset of myopia are at particular risk of complications associated with myopia. Younger children and children with greater initial myopic refractive errors are at a greater risk of myopia progression. Therefore, it is essential to identify subjects at high risk of developing myopia to facilitate myopia prevention in the early stage, especially during the preschool period. The purpose of this study was to determine whether premyopia and myopia in preschool children can be predicted by easily obtainable parameters. Methods: Data was collected in a population-based cohort. Comprehensive examinations included height, weight, refraction, axial length (AL), and corneal radius of curvature (CR), with a follow-up of 2 years. Parental myopia history was obtained from a questionnaire. Myopia was defined as spherical equivalent (SE) ≤ − 0.50 D. Premyopia was defined as − 0.50 D < 0.001). Higher baseline AL, AL/CR (hazard ratio (HR) = 4.916, HR = 2.979, respectively, comparing the top quartile with the bottom quartile, both p < 0.001) and two myopic parents (HR = 1.756, compared to no myopic parents, p = 0.001) were associated with a higher risk of future onset of premyopia. From the nomogram, AL/CR was found to have the most enormous effect on survival. Different baseline AL and AL/CR values (both Log Rank p < 0.001) had different survival curves. Conclusions: AL and AL/CR could be used as obtainable indicators for identifying subjects at high risk of developing premyopia and myopia in young preschool children.