Strategic project selection based on evidential reasoning approach for high-end equipment manufacturing industry

Abstract

With the rapid development of science and technology, emerging information technologies have significantly changed the daily life of people. In such context, strategic project selection for high-end equipment manufacturing industries faces more and more complexities and uncertainties with the consideration of several complex criteria. For example, a group of experts rather than a single expert should be invited to select strategic project for high-end equipment manufacturing industries and the experts may feel difficulty to express their preferences towards different strategic projects due to their limited cognitive capabilities. In order to handle these complexities and uncertainties, the criteria framework of strategic project selection is firstly constructed based on the characteristics of high-end equipment manufacturing industries and then evidential reasoning (ER) approach is introduced in this paper to help experts express their uncertain preferences and aggregate these preferences to generate an appropriate strategic project. A real case of strategic project selection in a high-speed train manufacturing enterprise is investigated to demonstrate the validity of the ER approach in solving strategic project selection problem.