Firm-level uncertainty and monetary policy transmission: analysis based on investment behavior and annual report text

Abstract

The loose monetary policy has not translated into actual credit increments, and the real investment rate has declined. This paper extracts the level of policy uncertainty perception from enterprise management analysis and discussion based on text analysis methods to identify the investment intention of enterprises. It is found that enterprise uncertainty perception can weaken corporate investment intention, thus hindering the promotion of loose monetary policy on investment. On the one hand, this paper verifies that uncertainty perception can weaken the effectiveness of monetary policy implementation at the micro level of enterprises; On the other hand, this paper finds that merely being based on the financing constraint theory may not be able to explain the capital investment behavior of Chinese companies. It also requires examining the investment intentions of enterprises themselves, enriching the research conclusions of enterprise investment theory.