State of the world 2024: 25 years of autocratization–democracy trumped?

Abstract

Using the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) dataset version 15, we offer six main findings about contemporary trends of regime transformations. First, the average level of liberal democracy continues to decline, and is back to 1985-level by population-weighted averages. Second, freedom of expression is worsening in nearly a quarter of all countries in the world, setting a new absolute record during the last 25 years. Third, 45 countries are in ongoing episodes of autocratization, and 19 countries are in ongoing episodes of democratization. Fourth, almost half of all autocratizing countries are increasingly spreading disinformation, and a quarter of all countries are affected by increasing political polarization. Fifth, we launch a watchlist initiative–an approach to detect early signs of autocratization and democratization. Sixth, we provide qualitative evidence of ongoing executive aggrandizement in the USA under the first two months of the second Trump administration. We argue that the USA could become the fastest autocratizing country in contemporary history that does not involve a coup d'état and that the second Trump administration has already taken American democracy closer to a democratic breakdown.