Future emissions of CH4 from the natural gas and coal industries

Abstract

The future global emission of CH4 from the natural gas and coal industries has been predicted to the year 2025 using a simple model which relates fuel use in a country to the national population. Estimates have been based on the published loss rates of CH4 from both the production and distribution stages of the natural gas industry and from coal mining, and United Nations population predictions. Results for natural gas suggest that total emissions from this source will rise from 34 Tg CH4 pa in 1990 to 43-46 Tg CH4 pa by 2025; an average increase of 0.7-0.9% pa. Future emissions of CH4 from coal mining activities are predicted to rise from 34 Tg CH4 pa to 42 Tg CH4 pa by 2025, an average increase of 0.6% pa. © 1993.